What's Moving Rates in 2026
Mortgage rates are primarily driven by 10-year Treasury yields, which respond to Fed policy, inflation data, and employment reports. Here's the current picture:
Fed Policy
The Federal Reserve paused rate hikes in late 2025 and has made two 0.25% cuts. Further cuts are projected for late 2026 if inflation continues trending toward 2%.
Inflation
CPI is running at 2.8% — still above the Fed's 2% target but well off the 2022 peak of 9.1%. Continued cooling is the most likely path to lower rates.
Forecast
Most economists project 30-year rates to reach 6.4–6.6% by end of 2026. Significant drops below 6% are unlikely without a recession. Lock if you find a home you like at today's rates.
How to Get Below the National Average
- 1.Credit score 760+ — qualifies you for the best tier pricing, typically 0.3–0.5% below average
- 2.20%+ down payment — removes PMI and signals lower risk to lenders
- 3.Compare 5+ lenders — the single most impactful action; saves average $3,000 over the loan
- 4.Buy points — 1 point = 1% of loan, reduces rate ~0.25%. Worth it for 7+ year stays
- 5.VA loan if eligible — VA rates are consistently 0.5–0.75% below conventional. No PMI ever.
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